Continued Signs of Improvement in Greater Phoenix Residential Real Estate Market
According to official stats published by the Arizona Regional MLS, which covers all of the Greater Phoenix area, the housing market continues to show good momentum. While overall trends remain positive, we’re still seeing some up and down ‘bouncing’ from month to month.
Here are some highlights:
–Home Sales per Month:
The Positive: More than 9,000 homes were sold in each of May, June, and July. You’d have to look back all the way to September 2005 (almost 4 years) to find a comparable sales level. In fact, prior to March 2009, there haven’t been more than 7,000 homes sold in any given month since June 2006. Sales volume is not just up…it’s WAY up!
The Questionable: While sales unit volume has increased every month this year from January through June, they dipped slightly in July and dropped more than 10% from July to August to a still respectable 8,009 units. The last quarter of the year should be telling.
Average Sales Price:
The Positive: After a prolonged contraction, there are signs that our prices have stabilized, at least at the low end. For each of the four months, April – July, the average sales price rose. You’d have to look all the way back to February – May 2005 to find four consecutive months of increasing sales prices.
The Questionable: The average sales price dipped between July and August 2009 to $170,401, which is still below the average at the start of the year of $180,328.
Median Home Sales Price:
The Positive: For the past 5 months, the median home price in the Valley has risen or remained stable. Not since February – June 2006 have we seen such a trend.
The Questionable: Nothing, at this point. Since the median price has fallen from $220,000 in January 2008 to a rock-bottom $126,000 today, I don’t expect we’ll see a further decline in this metric. It’s worth pointing out that we haven’t seen a median home price this low since the start of 2001, well before the boom!
Days on Market
The Positive: DOM has fallen for 6 consecutive months to our current level of 100 days. We haven’t been below 100 days since 2006.
The Questionable: Again, this is positive news. I expect to see the number rise through the holidays, then continue to lower again after the start of the new year.
We’re still seeing some fluctuations from month-to-month, but the overall trend among leading indicators supports the theory that the Greater Phoenix residential real estate market is on the rebound!